Management Prof. Scott Latham is 鈥渕orbidly fascinated鈥 with dying businesses. So he鈥檚 keenly interested in how AI will affect organizations鈥攁nd what it means for people鈥檚 jobs.
鈥淚f your job is data-heavy, numbers-heavy, AI is coming for you,鈥 Latham warns. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e in a job that requires a high level of critical thinking, one that deals with complex human relations, AI will certainly be involved, but I think the human will be OK.鈥
Latham, who teaches a course called The Future of Work, has been studying how technology affects organizations ever since his dissertation on the dot-com bust 25 years ago. He sees AI as the latest in a long line of technologies (computers, robots, the internet) that have changed the nature of work, but adds that it鈥檚 difficult to tell the hype from the reality. He subscribes to Amara鈥檚 law (named after the late futurist Roy Amara), which states that 鈥淲e tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.鈥
鈥淚f you look at AI, it鈥檚 a very simple model,鈥 Latham says. 鈥淵ou have a data set, and you have algorithms that run on that data. And with AI, you鈥檙e actually empowering it to make decisions.鈥
In the short term, Latham sees humans collaborating with AI in the workplace because 鈥渘o one is going to trust AI鈥 to make decisions. But human decision-making is limited by time, information and cognitive abilities, which behavioral economists call 鈥渂ounded rationality,鈥 so people tend to make 鈥渋ncredibly irrational decisions,鈥 Latham says. He predicts a 鈥渉uge shift鈥 in companies鈥 decision-making processes a decade from now.
鈥淎t some point, the human will be replaced because the AI will be able to make a better rational decision. I鈥檓 not saying a better decision, but a more rational decision,鈥 he says. 鈥淵ou will have AI in charge of critical decisions in an organization around supply chain, around sales, around layoffs.鈥澛犅
Latham and Assoc. Prof. of Management Beth Humberd co-authored a research article for the MIT Sloan Management Review in 2018 that looked at 鈥淔our Ways Jobs Will Respond to Automation.鈥 They evaluated professions according to the type of value delivered and skills required and created a framework to help workers assess the threat level posed by automation.聽
While data-intensive industries such as pharmaceuticals, radiology and computer coding are ripe for AI disruption, Latham says jobs that have a high variability of tasks鈥攖hink skilled trades like a plumber or electrician鈥攁re safest. So are jobs that require a lot of human interaction.
鈥淎I is going to affect human resources around hiring, but the tough stuff鈥攄ealing with a conflict at work or a toxic employee鈥擜I can鈥檛 deal with that,鈥 he says. 鈥淓ven the biggest AI proponents have doubts about its ability to deal with emotions and relationships.鈥
鈥楨very company is an AI company鈥 Vala Afshar 鈥94, 鈥96, chief digital evangelist at customer relationship management software giant Salesforce, also spends much time thinking about what AI means for workers.
鈥淭he future is 鈥榚very company is an AI company,鈥 鈥 says Afshar, who recently co-authored 鈥淏oundless: A New Mindset for Unlimited Business Success,鈥 a book that explores how companies can make the most of technologies such as AI, blockchain and cloud computing.
Afshar, an electrical engineering alum, says AI is 鈥渆lectricity for the 21st century.鈥
鈥淎I should be a human right鈥攁nd I haven鈥檛 said that about the internet,鈥 he says. 鈥淚f you don鈥檛 have access to AI, you鈥檙e not going to be able to compete and win. You鈥檙e not going to be healthy or prosperous.鈥
Afshar notes that new research by consultant Accenture shows that more than $10.3 trillion in additional economic value can be unlocked by 2038 if organizations adopt AI 鈥渞esponsibly and at scale.鈥 The same research shows that 95% of employees see value in working with AI, but their top concern is that they don鈥檛 trust organizations to ensure positive outcomes for everyone.
During a fireside chat at UML鈥檚 Innovation Hub in December, Afshar told students that every field鈥攆rom engineering and marketing to service and health care鈥攚ill be disrupted by AI. The key to staying employable, he said, is to learn how to use the technology.
鈥淭he likelihood of job risk is not because of machines and algorithms. You鈥檙e likely to lose your job to a human who鈥檚 comfortable with technologies like AI,鈥 he says. Afshar says generative AI tools like ChatGPT are evolving into digital assistants that will anticipate people鈥檚 needs at work.
鈥淣o matter what type of work you do, you鈥檒l speak to an app on this device and it will guide you. One hundred per-cent, this is reality,鈥 he says. 鈥淚t will grow into a concierge service that not only answers directly what you ask, but anticipates your needs without you asking.鈥
More than half of the companies in the Fortune 500 list in 2003 no longer exist today, according to research from WatchMyCompetitor, a (you guessed it) AI-powered research platform. While the pace of change can be unsettling, Afshar sees the future as half-full.
鈥淚鈥檓 not worried about jobs. I鈥檓 an optimist,鈥 says Afshar, who encourages students to be optimistic, too. 鈥淪ometimes, you sound smarter when you鈥檙e a pessimist and cynical, but in the long run, optimists create the future.鈥濃擡B