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09/17/2018
By Katharine Webster

John Cluverius, an assistant professor of political science, uses survey research to peer into the minds of voters and politicians. That鈥檚 made him looking for analysis of the contest for the open seat in Massachusetts鈥� 3rd Congressional District.

But Cluverius鈥� expertise extends far beyond the district and the state, as he looks at who makes up key voter blocks and examines whether mass email campaigns sway legislators鈥� votes.

As the new associate director of UML鈥檚 Center for Public Opinion, Cluverius will delve even further into voter perceptions and political outcomes 鈥� and then bring those examples into his Research Methods classes.

Cluverius took time off between television and radio interviews the day after the Massachusetts primaries to chat about his research and the upcoming midterm elections.

Q: How is President Trump affecting the midterm races?聽

A: Republicans want to support Trump, so we鈥檝e seen the positive influence of Trump endorsements in GOP primaries. In Massachusetts, for example, Geoff Diehl, who won the Republican primary to contest U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren鈥檚 seat, has clearly aligned himself as a Trump Republican. Some Trump-backed candidates have won and some have lost 鈥� but Trump has made a significant difference in every race. He鈥檚 made an unprecedented effort to use the power of the presidency as a force within the party primary system.

Q: What are the trends among Democratic voters?

A: Democrats want to use the institutions of democracy at their disposal to stand up to Donald Trump. You see white, incumbent Democrats in majority-minority districts losing in the primaries, even when the incumbents and their challengers have equally progressive agendas 鈥� for example, in Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley鈥檚 upset of U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano. The difference is less about specific policies and more about the tone the challengers adopt toward Trump.

Q: What鈥檚 the level of voter enthusiasm in the two parties? Are Republicans or Democrats doing a better job of firing up their voters?

A: In all midterm elections, there鈥檚 an inherent bias against the president and party in control of Congress. For people in the party that鈥檚 out of power, midterms are a chance to resist the sitting president, so the 鈥渙ut鈥� party almost always gains seats.聽In this election cycle, we鈥檙e seeing that Democrats are excited to vote, even in the primaries, where they turned out in much higher numbers than Republicans. In every state, Democrats have seen surges of younger voters, first-time voters and voters of color who didn鈥檛 vote in the presidential election in 2016. That bodes well for Democrats in November.聽

At the same time, Trump鈥檚 warnings about the dire consequences of Democrats gaining control of Congress aren鈥檛 leading to higher turnout among Republicans 鈥� at least not so far. That kind of message never seems to connect with voters of the president鈥檚 party, whether it鈥檚 Trump or Obama. Voters always seem to think that as long as their guy is president, everything鈥檚 going to be OK, regardless of what happens in Congress.

Image by K. Webster

A: I鈥檓 really interested in how political actors find new ways of processing information and figure out shortcuts to connect with voters. The 3rd Congressional District race is a great example. Our poll with The Boston Globe two weeks before the Democratic primary found Dan Koh in the lead, with 19 percent, and Barbara L鈥橧talien and Rufus Gifford tied at 13 percent. Lori Trahan and Juana Matias trailed at 8 and 6 percent respectively, and the other five candidates had 4 percent or less. But 31 percent of likely Democratic primary voters were still undecided, so we knew that a lot could change before primary election day.

We didn鈥檛 foresee that Trahan would pick up most of the undecided voters in Middlesex County and that Matias would do the same in Essex County. Trahan edged past Koh to win by 122 votes 鈥� before the recount 鈥� giving each of them 22.6 percent of the total. And Matias surged to third place with 15.2 percent, just ahead of L鈥橧talien and Gifford. Koh had a major fundraising advantage and big TV ad buys that gave him the best districtwide name recognition, but Trahan and Matias made small, very strategic media buys in the final days. It also helped that and gave a kind of secondary endorsement to Matias.

Q: Your past research has found that about an issue can actually harden their stance. What鈥檚 next?

A: My most recent research concerns the 鈥減rogressive鈥� and 鈥渁lt-right鈥� labels. People who have sexist attitudes are more likely to identify as 鈥減rogressives鈥� than 鈥渓iberals.鈥� These are the so-called 鈥淏ernie bros鈥� 鈥� men who supported Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries, although they鈥檙e only a subset of Sanders supporters. They鈥檙e less likely than liberals to support left-leaning women candidates.

The 鈥渁lt-right鈥� label, which came into heavy use in 2016, is associated with candidates who are more preoccupied with racial issues than with politicians identified as 鈥渃onservative.鈥� Our experiments find that people think alt-right candidates are more likely to support profiling of Muslims, oppose both legal and illegal immigration, deny the existence of racial bias in policing and believe that whites are under attack.

Q: Tell us a little more about your work with the Center for Public Opinion and how it benefits your students.

A: I鈥檓 a survey researcher, so I鈥檓 excited to help the Center develop its infrastructure. We鈥檙e working hard to make all of our data and methodology available publicly, for free, as part of the American Association of Public Opinion Research鈥檚 Transparency Initiative.

The class that I teach most often is Research Methods in Political Science. That topic can seem really abstract until I talk to my students about research someone is doing in the Center for Public Opinion. My students get to see that research unfold in front of them, and they can really get their hands dirty with the data.聽