Research Is Supported by $478,000 Grant from NOAA
Image by Wikimedia Commons
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2019 was the second-hottest year for Earth, just behind 2016. This is based on the agency鈥檚 140-year climate record.
09/03/2020
By Edwin L. Aguirre
Two faculty researchers in the Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will study the cause of heat waves and droughts in the Northeast region of the U.S. and how they interact with each other under a three-year, $478,000 grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).听
鈥淥ur goal is to better understand the physical factors and weather patterns that cause hot and dry weather, and how much hotter can it get when it鈥檚 dry, and how much drier can it get when it鈥檚 hot,鈥� says Prof. Mathew Barlow, who is the principal investigator on the project, with Asst. Prof. Christopher Skinner as co-principal investigator.
鈥淲e hope to answer some important questions such as how well can we predict this kind of weather and how much more often will we get this kind of weather in the future,鈥� says Barlow.
According to NOAA and NASA, , with the average temperature across the globe 1.71 degrees Fahrenheit (0.95 degree Celsius) above the 20th-century average. The hottest year, 2016, exceeded that average by 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degree Celsius).
Image by Edwin L. Aguirre
Prof. Mathew Barlow
鈥淲e鈥檒l have to do the project to see. Although broadly, we have a high degree of confidence that heat waves will increase in both number and intensity,鈥� Barlow says. 鈥淒roughts are trickier, although we think it鈥檚 likely that the intensity of droughts will increase.鈥�
He says it鈥檚 the first time this type of research is being done for the Northeast.
鈥淭echnically, there are climate projections already available for heat waves and droughts for the Northeast,鈥� says Barlow. 鈥淲hat we鈥檙e adding is a much more detailed look at the projections and emphasizing a process-based view rather than just a statistical analysis.鈥�
Using machine learning and moisture-tracking techniques, the researchers will assess the current climate model鈥檚 ability to simulate and predict these weather phenomena and their interactions. 鈥淲e expect the techniques developed in our project to be directly applicable to other regions of the country,鈥� says Barlow.
Extreme Weathers
Historically, heat waves have not been that frequent for the Northeast and so people are not very well-equipped to handle them, Barlow notes.听
鈥淢any houses don't have central air-conditioning and have to make do, if at all, with inefficient and less-effective window units. This causes a range of impacts 鈥� health stress for people who don鈥檛 have good AC, extra cost for people who have window units, and overall strain on the electric grid,鈥� he explains. 鈥淚n terms of droughts, they get less attention in states like Massachusetts that aren鈥檛 as agriculturally oriented, but still have important impacts in terms of water quality, recreation, ecosystem health and some agricultural crops.鈥�
Asst. Prof. Christopher Skinner
鈥淪ome of it comes from water that evaporated from the ground in the Midwest, some from the Mid-Atlantic states, some from the Atlantic Ocean and some comes all the way from the Gulf of Mexico,鈥� explains Skinner.
鈥淚n this project, we are going to study which of these regions is most important for rainfall and droughts in the Northeast and examine whether climate change may alter the relative importance of those regions. For example, can a drought in the Midwest increase the likelihood of dry, hot conditions in the Northeast? Will a warmer world make the Northeast more or less dependent on certain geographical regions for rainfall? These are questions we hope to answer,鈥� he says.
Assisting Barlow and Skinner in the project are graduate students Allison Hannigan and Tyler Harrington and postdoctoral researcher Laurie Agel of the department鈥檚 .
Barlow is currently finishing up a four-year, $454,000 project that started in 2016 and is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to study extreme rainfall in the Northeast.听
鈥淥ur NOAA project is a natural extension of that NSF award, to look at the opposite extreme of weather phenomena,鈥� he says.